Variable winter crop outlook across regions
10 September 2013
The outlook for Australia’s winter crop production remains positive, with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasting production to increase by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to around 39.2 million tonnes.
On releasing the September edition of the Australian Crop Report today, ABARES Executive Director, Paul Morris, said seasonal conditions had been variable across major grains producing regions, with production expected to increase in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, but fall in Queensland and New South Wales.
“Below average rainfall since mid-winter in parts of New South Wales, Queensland and the northern growing areas of Western Australia has adversely affected crop development,” Mr Morris said.
“In contrast, temperatures and rainfall have generally been favourable in South Australia, Victoria and the southern parts of Western Australia.”
Sufficient and timely rainfall across all major cropping regions in spring will be needed to achieve the prospective yields.
Production of wheat and barley for Australia is forecast to rise by 11 per cent and 13 per cent to around 24.5 million tonnes and 7.7 million tonnes, respectively. In contrast, canola production is forecast to fall by 18 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.3 million tonnes, as a result of a significant decline in planted area.
The area planted to summer crops is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to around 1.4 million hectares, reflecting favourable domestic feed grains prices.
“As it had been dry recently in the summer cropping regions, rainfall will be needed in the lead up to the summer cropping season for planting intentions to be realised,” Mr Morris said.
“Taking this into account, total summer crop production is forecast to decline by 1 per cent to around 4.9 million tonnes in 2013–14.”
The Australian Crop Report is available at on the ABARES website.